ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON HUMAN THERMAL COMFORT UNDER INTENSIFYING LAND COVER CHANGE IN ETHIOPIA (1984–2023)

Abstract

Rising temperatures have aggravated heat stress in many tropical countries, driven by the combined effects of land cover dynamics and climate variability. However, the impacts of land use and land cover change (LULC) on thermal comfort have not been sufficiently evaluated, predominantly in many African countries. Thus, this study assesses heat stress in Ethiopia (1984–2023) using Adjusted Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and Discomfort Index (DI) assessment indicators, via satellite-derived land cover datasets and Land Surface Temperature (LST). The results revealed that mean annual temperature and thermal stress in Ethiopia had steadily increased over the last four decades. The DI value (> 32) indicates very high heat stress areas across the rift valley, particularly along the Danakil Depression. The area extent raised in 2023 sevenfold compared to 1984, while the extent of comfortable zones decreased by 25%. DI and WBGT values are higher in urbanized and forest-depleted areas (Southeast) and lowland regions, this was driven by climate change and induced LULC. The warming trend is currently increasing in highland areas that were formerly cooler. The WBGT results support DI outcomes, showing an increase in heat stress, expansion of high-risk areas (≥27.7 °C), and a decrease in cold stress regions. The expansion of heat stress zones is due to the compound effects of climatic warming, natural vegetation reduction and urban expansion. The findings show that heat stress is spreading across Ethiopia, increasing health risks, limiting everyday activities, and affecting socioeconomic resilience. As a result, these findings emphasise the need for climate-sensitive design, heat adaptation measures, and public health involvement in decreasing rising heat dangers.