PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN CONTROLLING AND STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN NAUTICAL TOURISM – CASE STUDY OF ACI

Abstract

One of the fundamental characteristics of today’s business environment is the high dynamism of technological changes and operating under a high level of external risks that affect both individual enterprises and entire industries and economies. Just as we have entered the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we are already experiencing the features of the Fifth. The developments related to new business model creation are increasingly dynamic and particularly evident in tourism, including the nautical tourism industry. Tourism and nautical tourism are of primary importance to Croatia’s national economy, which makes strategic risks even more significant in terms of the management that must respond with long-term business strategies. In this context, controlling and predictive analytics are key to successful risk management. The strategic risk posed by COVID-19 and the damage it left behind has triggered the development of new models implemented by stakeholders in nautical tourism, especially marinas that are also connected to the charter sector. Therefore, the goal of this research is to evaluate the factors that influence the formation of strategic decisions and models aimed at increasing resilience to the impacts of strategic risks. The research hypothesis, specific to the Croatian context along the Adriatic coast, asserts that the impact of crises is not uniform across all parts of the Adriatic, nor is it the same depending on the strategic business decisions made by marina management. The research conducted in this paper confirms the proposed hypothesis. That is, the differences among marinas, observed through the level of damage experienced under crisis conditions, vary in accordance with the strategic business decisions made by owners and management.